If you want the bad news all at once, the TL/DR is this:
(1) Trump can use normal tactics to win outright or make the race closer.
(2) COVID problems with election administration can take up to 6 percent off of Biden’s margin.
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(3) Trump and the GOP might use historically unprecedented tactics to stay in power despite losing.
(4) pro-Trump foreign actors will be using similar but more aggressive tactics to their 2016 interference.
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