The tsunami flows down-ballot: Charlie Cook and his team now like Democrats’ chances to reclaim the Senate, with Cook’s Senate editor Jessica Taylor shifting races in Arizona, Georgia and Iowa in their favor this week.

Cook also moved 20 House races toward Democrats.

Dave Wasserman, its House editor, said he couldn’t recall a similarly sized shift for one party.

The big picture: Trump’s net approval rating (-15) has remained remarkably consistent throughout his presidency, highlighting the difficulty he faces in trying to quickly turn around public opinion.

CNN’s Harry Enten noted morning that, since 1940, incumbent presidents who were re-elected had an average net approval rating of +23.