This year’s Senate races spell disaster for the GOP

Republicans are also at risk of losing seats in Kansas and Alaska in a worst-case scenario. Democrats have not elected a senator in Kansas since 1932, but both parties think the seat could be in play if Republicans nominate former Kansas secretary of state Kris Kobach. Kobach is a conservative whose views on immigration and voter fraud alienate many moderate voters. He lost in 2018 as the GOP nominee for governor, losing to Democrat Laura Kelly by five percentage points. The Alaska race has not received much national attention, but the state is much more competitive below the presidential level. Incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan won the seat in the 2014 Republican wave by only a two-point margin over Democratic incumbent Mark Begich, who himself won the seat narrowly over incumbent Republican Ted Stevens in the 2008 Democratic tsunami. Most analysts still rate this as a Republican seat, but the chance of an upset led the Cook Political Report to downgrade its rating slightly to “likely Republican” in June.

Republicans also look set to lose House seats if trends don’t improve. Throughout 2020, Democrats have led the national generic ballot, which asks respondents whose party’s House candidate they would support. They currently lead by a massive 11-point margin, nearly three points more than they won the national popular vote in 2018. Republicans will automatically lose two seats because of a court-ordered redistricting in North Carolina and won at least 10 seats in 2018 by three points or less. Losing this November by 10 points or more would almost guarantee further GOP House losses, entrenching Democratic rule in the House even further.

A Republican wipeout would likely extend deep into state legislatures, too.