Others have suggested that, given West’s prior friendliness with Trump, West’s goal is to play the spoiler: that he’ll get on ballots across the country, siphon off young voters and African Americans from Biden and allow Trump to win by focusing on his base. But that also seems far-fetched.

As others have pointed out, many of West’s biggest fans aren’t the young African American men who would be West’s political targets in this scenario. According to 2018 YouGov survey, 21 percent of Hispanics and 20 percent of whites had a favorable view of West, while only nine percent of African Americans did. As Forbes’s Andrew Solender recently pointed out, views of West have also polarized as he’s cozied up to the president: 34 percent of Republicans and 13 percent of Democrats view him favorably.

Favorability and fandom aren’t the same thing, but these numbers support what many have seen anecdotally: A lot of West’s biggest fans are white, and a West candidacy wouldn’t exclusively attract African American Democrats.

Moreover, recent history suggests that simply being African American isn’t enough to win black votes.