Who are the key voters turning against Trump?

But the Democrats have a secret weapon in 2020 on the other side of the age spectrum: senior voters. Among this age group — voters 65 and older — polls so far this year reveal a dramatic shift to the Democrats. That could be the most consequential political development of this election…

There are a number of possible reasons for this disenchantment. First, while they are a relatively conservative population group, they are not as conservative as their reputation suggests. For example, according to the Nationscape data (over 20,000 interviews with registered white senior voters since the beginning of the year), white seniors support increasing taxes on those earning over $600,000 a year by 44 points. They also support paid family leave by 29 points and a $15-an-hour minimum wage by 21 points. On health care, they support a public option for government health insurance by 34 points.

But that liberalism is tempered by other views. White seniors oppose “Medicare for All” by 28 points. And while these voters oppose separating children from parents to pursue prosecutions against illegal border crossing by 40 points, they also favor moving away from a family-based immigration system to a merit-based one — generally a position favored by conservatives — by 18 points and charging those who cross the border illegally with a federal crime by 17 points.