Biden has led recent Michigan polling — not always by a lot, although sometimes by double digits. Rep. Justin Amash (I, MI-3) decided not to run for president as a Libertarian, preventing him from playing spoiler as an anti-Trump candidate in his competitive home state. And while primary results cannot be used as a proxy for the fall, Biden beat Bernie Sanders in Michigan by a healthy margin in the March 10 primary (when Sanders was still an active candidate), carrying every county after Hillary Clinton had struggled against Sanders in outstate areas four years prior, indicating that, perhaps, Biden was a better candidate for non-metro Michigan — and other similar kinds of places across the competitive industrial north — than Clinton had been.

Meanwhile, in Florida, Biden actually has not trailed a poll since mid-March. Biden has shown some surprising strength with senior citizens in many national polls, leading in some surveys with these voters after the 2016 exit polls showed Trump winning the oldest age cohort by seven. If true, this trend naturally would help Biden disproportionately in Florida, a magnet for retirees. Trump may have also jeopardized a small asset in recent days by suggesting in an interview with Axios that he is open to meeting with dictatorial Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and has soured on Juan Guaidó, an opposition leader that the United States has recognized as the true leader of the country. Democrats have sometimes struggled in South Florida with a perception that they are soft on despotic Latin American leaders, like the Castros and Maduro. To the extent that these developments matter to voters in South Florida, Trump may have opened himself up to criticism: There are more than 400,000 Hispanics of Venezuelan origin in South Florida, according to a recent Politico report on Trump’s shifting stances on Venezuela’s leadership (Trump reaffirmed opposition to Maduro in a tweet on Monday)…

We have one other change this week: We’re moving Pennsylvania from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.