The last time things got this ugly was in 2017, when India deployed troops to stop the Chinese military from building a road in Doklam, an area claimed by both China and the tiny, India-backed kingdom of Bhutan. Both sides eventually stood down. The scuffles this May were reportedly the result of Chinese objections to Indian patrols in disputed areas. China has been bolstering its military presence in the disputed region where this week’s deadly clash took place, with as many as 5,000 troops, according to Indian media reports.
If history is a guide, the two sides should be able to talk themselves off the ledge, even after this week’s casualties: For both sides, the border tensions are mostly a distraction from bigger strategic priorities, and the risks of escalation couldn’t be higher. But there are some underlying factors that create more cause for concern.
With global attention distracted by the coronavirus, Xi Jinping’s government has lately been moving aggressively to assert its sovereignty over disputed areas, including stepping up military activity in the South China Sea and chipping away at Hong Kong’s political independence. This activity is likely alarming to the Indian government. India was already casting a wary eye on China’s massive global infrastructure investment program, the Belt and Road Initiative, which has included massive investment in India’s main rival, Pakistan. China has backed Pakistan’s claims in the disputed Kashmir region and is also seemingly increasing its influence on India’s neighbor and longtime ally, Nepal. (Nepal is currently involved in yet another border dispute with India.) India’s leaders may see this as a last chance to push back China’s growing military influence in its neighborhood. While we’re certainly going to learn much more about the incident in coming days, initial reports look very bad for the Indian military, which might also prompt the government to take action to redeem itself.
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