But let’s be honest. Trump is an incumbent of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue with all the built-in advantages that come with the address. His base is solid. Outside the pages of national newspapers and the floor of the Senate, he has no serious Republican critics. His opponent, meanwhile, went into virtual hibernation in the middle of a primary campaign, and Biden’s own advisers are saying that they want him to remain “in the basement” as long as possible. People know who the former vice president is, but that’s not the same thing as being enthusiastic about him. Nothing in Democratic messaging so far suggests that the party has internalized the main lesson of 2016, which was that you cannot make an election only about the other candidate.
Perhaps even more worrisome for Democrats, though, is the fact that young people, arguably the single most important element in Obama’s two winning presidential coalitions, were not exactly turning out in droves to vote in the primaries. This was something Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders had to learn the hard way. I know it’s hard to believe right now, but tens of thousands of the 20-somethings who have spent the last two weeks LARPing as extras from The Battle of Algiers probably won’t bother to show up to throw out the guy they believe is an actual fascist dictator.
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