For instance, Clinton won voters under the age of 45 by about 17 percentage points, according to the Cooperative Congressional Election Study, a survey of more than 60,000 voters organized by Harvard University and administered by YouGov, while Biden led by an average of 16 points among this group in polls conducted in the last two months. In fact, in each of the age groups we looked at, Biden’s margin ranged from about 1 point better than Clinton’s to just 3 points worse.2
In other words, Biden may not excite young voters, but this isn’t necessarily going to be an Achilles’ heel for his campaign either, especially considering Biden may be in a stronger position with older voters.
There was a fair amount of variation in how Biden did among younger voters in the polls we looked at, though. For example, while Morning Consult and YouGov both found Biden leading among voters aged 18 to 29 by an average of about 20 points over the past two months, they differed quite a bit when it came to voters aged 30 to 44. Morning Consult gave Biden an average lead of 6 points compared to YouGov’s 12 points. And although Data for Progress’s surveys gave Biden an average lead of 23 points among those aged 18 to 34, Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus only gave him an edge of 12 points across its tracking polls for that age group. But it’s hard to unpack what some of these differences might mean for Biden, as ultimately it may have less to do with different pollsters picking up different trends and more with sampling methodologies, house effects and the larger margins of error often seen in smaller sample sizes like age groups.