Republicans’ biggest challenge in netting at least 17 House seats starts at the top, in the Oval Office. The president alienated so many college-educated whites during the first two years of his presidency that he single-handedly turned over two or three dozen suburban House seats (depending on how you define “suburban”) to the Democrats during the 2018 midterms.
Instead of changing his rhetoric, style and agenda after that drubbing, Trump doubled down on his behavior, calling adversaries names, repeating untruths, and pushing policies on health care and gun rights that didn’t play well with suburban voters in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Virginia, Michigan, California, Minnesota and even Georgia…
Democratic fundraising in open seats is particularly strong, and 11 House GOP incumbents are being outraised by their Democratic challengers (compared to only three incumbent Democrats who have been outraised by their Republican challengers).
At this point, the major House handicappers simply don’t believe Republicans have enough of the right candidates, performing well enough, to take back the House. (Of course, this could change.)