Now, it seems Americans have probably overreacted to the 2016 result. They don’t trust the numbers that are in front of them. Americans think the polls are underestimating Republicans.

You can see this really well by looking not just at the 2020 polls, but the 2018 polling as well. Gallup asked Americans just before that election whether they thought Democrats or Republicans would control the US House after the election. By a 50% to 44% margin, they said Republicans. This came even as Democrats were clear favorites in pretty much every forecast and when that same Gallup poll showed Democrats with an 11-point lead on the generic congressional ballot.

This 2018 poll marked the first time that Americans incorrectly forecasted who would win the House. Americans had previously correctly called every other House election and flip of the chamber in the years Gallup polled (1946, 1948, 2006 and 2010).

For 2020, it seems that Americans are continuing to think that the polls are underestimating Republicans. That may be the case, but it seems like a bad bet given that polls did pretty well in 2018.