Yet there are other reasons to think that China would prefer a Biden presidency to a second Trump term in office. Trump has thrown a curve ball against the previously abiding China consensus in Washington. His two significant bad moves? Falling for Chinese red carpets to believe that Xi is his friend, and withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. But beyond that, Trump has done a pretty good job at chomping down on China’s more malevolent ambitions.

Trump played China at its own trade brinkmanship game and, against expectations, has won small but significant victories. Trump has escalated the U.S. Military’s contest – at sea and on land – of China’s regional imperialism, and has authorized more aggressive intelligence operations against China. This does not sit well in Beijing, which was quite happy with the Obama administration that allowed them to conquer much of the South China Sea without firing a shot. Or at least very few shots, and only against regional fishing boats.

Xi was quite happy, also, with an Obama administration which allowed China to keep stealing U.S. intellectual property without any significant cyber-retaliation.