Some appreciation of the more likely scenarios extending into the future come from a study by Marc Lipsitch of Harvard University and colleagues. Using an epidemiological model, they projected a number of plausible possibilities, acknowledging that much depends on prevailing unknowns about the virus and on what people and authorities do. Changing seasons could affect viral transmission, as could the degree of immunity attained by recovered individuals, which could be permanent or only temporary.

Overall, they found that even if we continue with strict social distancing, there’s still a significant chance of a major new outbreak this winter. If it turns out that recovered individuals only have temporary immunity, the virus will probably enter into regular circulation, causing annual outbreaks. If there are strong seasonal effects on transmission, the wintertime outbreaks may very well be worse than the initial ones.

And social distancing, either continuous or intermittent, might be required into 2022, with ongoing surveillance through 2024. It’s not at all realistic to think the virus will soon recede and disappear, letting us all go back to normal.