Model: Reopening states too early will bring deadlier outcomes

Seven coronavirus models show US deaths from coronavirus will keep rising in the coming weeks. But how sharply the death toll rises depends on how much “contact reduction” Americans practice, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said.

The models estimate the forecast numbers of cases and deaths on the state and national levels, and one model from the University of Texas at Austin makes metro-area projections.

“State-level forecasts vary widely, reflecting differences in early epidemic phases, timing of interventions, and model-specific assumptions,” the CDC says.

Models that factor in strong contact reduction suggest new deaths will continue to occur, but will “slow substantially over the next four weeks,” the CDC said.