Finally, the third reason Biden will not be president is the 14 Year Rule. The idea of former George W. Bush speechwriter John McConnell, and popularized by writer Jonathan Rauch, it basically says that politicians have a strict sell-by date. “No one gets elected president who needs longer than 14 years to get from his or her first gubernatorial or Senate victory to either the presidency or the vice presidency,” Rauch wrote. That has been true for a century.

Biden didn’t even get close. It took him 36 years to get from his first Senate victory to the vice presidency. It he wins the presidency now, it would be 47 years from that first Senate swearing-in until Inauguration Day.

Of course, it’s possible the 14 Year Rule, the Too Long In The Senate Rule, and the How Vice Presidents Become President Rule might all be wrong in Biden’s case. If so, he can frame this headline and hang it somewhere in the White House. But don’t bet on it.