But Biden is currently relatively strong in Missouri and Mississippi. The key to Sanders using March 10 to turn around his campaign is probably winning Michigan, which conceivably could allow him to win a majority of the day’s states and delegates. With Sanders’s 1 in 4 (23 percent) chance in the Wolverine State, it’s not out of the question either.

The reason this Tuesday is so important for Sanders is that his campaign needs a shot of momentum and good press to immunize them from the shellacking they could take on March 17, on which several big, Biden-friendly states will vote. One of them, Florida, is the single likeliest state to go for Biden (he has a greater than 99 in 100 chance to win there). In Illinois and Ohio, Biden is also a solid favorite. However, if Sanders does manage to win Michigan the previous week, maybe these states are in play too (our model gives Sanders similar odds in Michigan, Illinois and Ohio, so if he wins the first we’d expect him to be competitive in the second two — especially Ohio, Michigan’s demographic doppelganger). Arizona is currently the likeliest March 17 primary to result in a Sanders win, but unfortunately for Sanders, it’s also worth the fewest delegates.