With the death toll approaching 3,000, over 80,000 cases officially recorded and an outbreak in Italy now shutting down the richest chunk of its economy, some economists are beginning to war game what an untethered outbreak could mean for global growth.

Those at Oxford Economics reckon an international health crisis could be enough to wipe more than $1 trillion from global gross domestic product. That would be the economic price tag for a spike in workplace absenteeism, lower productivity, sliding travel, disrupted supply chains and reduced trade and investment.

Investors are already nervous, with U.S. stock benchmarks slumping more than 3% on Monday and the S&P 500 Index dropping the most since February 2018.