Sanders's soft victory

Not only do the Democratic primaries use proportional delegate allocation instead of winner-take-all, but Sanders’ initial ceiling is quite a bit lower than Trump’s (26 percent instead of 35 percent). Part of that might be because Sanders faces a larger and more fractured field — with the potentially biggest fracture of all (the self-funded candidacy of erstwhile Republican billionaire Michael Bloomberg) still waiting in the wings. As it did four years ago, the lack of cohesion in the field could benefit Sanders by preventing any other candidate from overtaking him — especially if his ceiling begins to rise over the next few contests. Though it could also hold down his delegate totals, easily preventing him from winning enough to lock down the nomination prior to the party’s convention in July.

But Sanders could face an even bigger problem — the fact that the Democratic electorate isn’t fractured enough…

Sanders is the only anti-establishment candidate running, with Warren only sometimes seeming to compete with him for that title. The rest of the field — including Bloomberg — displays very little animosity toward the Democratic powers-that-be. That, combined with the electoral strength of ideological moderation in the party, is likely to make consolidation of the not-Sanders vote relatively easy, at least compared with what the Republicans went through four years ago.