Bernie is now the frontrunner and a contested convention is now more likely

Still, Sanders’s 38 percent chance of a pledged delegate majority is far better than any other Democrat. He also has a 52 percent chance of a pledged delegate plurality. Even if this isn’t the strongest possible version of Sanders, he’s come far closer to actualizing his potential than anyone else in the field. Furthermore, the tactical considerations of the race are setting up well for Sanders: The moderate “lane” still very crowded and perhaps even getting more crowded (no longer just Biden and Buttigieg but also Amy Klobuchar and Michael Bloombeg!), and Sanders has pulled well ahead of Elizabeth Warren in the progressive lane.

But New Hampshire is also good news if you’re rooting for chaos. Our forecast has the chance of no pledged delegate majority up to 33 percent, its highest figure yet, and roughly double what it was before Iowa.

Almost everything went well from the standpoint of a contested convention. Sanders won, but with a smaller share of the vote than the model expected. Moreover, the second and third place candidates, Buttigieg and Klobuchar, may or may not be poised to take advantage of any post-New Hampshire surge they get, having begun the evening at just 10 percent and 4 percent respectively in national polls, and not having any obvious strength in Nevada or South Carolina. Meanwhile, the two candidates apart from Sanders who had seemed to have built the broadest national coalitions, Warren and Biden, did terribly in New Hampshire.