That said, House elections are about more than money. Republicans are not favored to win the House — but it doesn’t take much imagination to figure out how they could.
Long-term national trends point to increases in straight-ticket voting and a waning power of incumbency. Despite losing the national popular vote in 2016, Donald Trump carried 226 of 435 of the congressional districts that will be in place for this year’s election (this includes the newly-redrawn maps in North Carolina). Democrats hold 30 districts that Trump carried, while Republicans hold only five that Hillary Clinton carried.
Our current ratings favor Democrats to win at least three of the five current Clinton-won GOP districts, while Republicans scored a pickup themselves when Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R, NJ-2) switched parties. Put it all together, and the Republicans likely will need to win at least 20 or so currently Democratic seats to get to the magic number of 218 seats for a majority. The Trump-won districts held by Democrats provide a path to reaching that number, and Republicans also have some targets in marginal Clinton-won districts as well.
So for as bleak as things may look for Republicans in the House, the targets are there for them to win the majority, particularly if Trump wins again.
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