For Biden, this poll brings mostly bad news. Beyond Buttigieg slicing into his core support, his advantage on having the best chance to win in November — the driving argument for his campaign — has disappeared since mid-January. While 41% two weeks ago saw him as most likely to beat President Donald Trump, now, just 25% say the same. More likely New Hampshire primary voters now say they will not vote for him under any circumstances (17%) than said so at any point in UNH’s polling on this question in the last year. And just 10% say they think he’s most likely to win in New Hampshire on Tuesday, down 12 points since January.

Sanders’ lead over Buttigieg rests largely on a 14-point advantage among the roughly half of likely primary voters who say they have made up their minds about whom to support.

Among the movable half who say they are leaning toward a candidate or have yet to choose one, Buttigieg (21%) and Sanders (19%) are about even, with Warren (11%) and Biden (8%) well behind.