The entire Democratic top tier could survive Iowa

If the close contest persists, that probably keeps all four top candidates politically alive for subsequent races in New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina next month. That could suggest a more protracted and unpredictable race ahead.

Going back to 1976, any candidate, Democratic or Republican, who didn’t finish first or second in Iowa was a political dead man, even if some didn’t realize it.

The only exception was 1988 when eventual nominees Republican George H.W. Bush and Democrat Michael Dukakis finished a reasonably close third; both, however, were well-positioned to bounce back shortly and win in their neighboring New Hampshire.