What happens if detente with North Korea fails?

This uniquely dovish Moon-Trump constellation met nonetheless by continuing North Korean obstinance will fire a coming hawkish backlash. Trump is a unique president. No other U.S. president met the North Korean leader; no other went to North Korea; no other attended three summits (not just one), extending North Korea the legitimacy gains of direct interaction with a U.S. president. Trump said he was ‘in love’ with his ‘friend’ Kim Jong Un. Trump has endured heavy criticism – ‘photo-op diplomacy,’ ‘drive-by diplomacy’ – from the American foreign policy establishment for his outreach. Any successor to Trump – Democrat or Republican – will almost certainly be tougher on the North.

Moon too is unique. His liberal presidential predecessors – 1998-2007 – also reached out to North Korea and sought to end the peninsular cold war through reconciliation. But none went as far as Moon. The backlash against Moon’s detente has also been pretty sharp. He is routinely accused of appeasement and naivete by South Korean conservatives, and conspiracy theories about Moon as a traitor are widespread on the far right here.

Hawks then will look at these extraordinary, overlapping, and rejected dovish efforts and conclude that North Korea will never come to reasonable terms. Moon and Trump were offering far more than North Korea ever could hope for in the past, and still, the North would give up nothing. Hence talking to Pyongyang is pointless, just giving it time to build more missiles and warheads.