So any trepidation the Democrats may feel as they vote for their impeachment resolution is understandable. There is another X-factor: Chief Justice John Roberts. The Constitution provides that Roberts will preside over the Senate “trial.” How he conducts the proceeding will be important. Roberts’ tenure so far has been disappointing to many conservatives. (For what it is worth, I have defended him against some criticisms from the right.) But this is a crucial moment: his conduct of the proceeding will make a difference in how it is perceived by the public.

Another important question is how minority voters are responding to the Democrats’ obsession with partisan advantage. As I have written before, a lot of African-American voters, especially men, identify with Trump. Among Hispanics, too, Trump’s support has steadily grown. In both cases, this has a lot to do with the success of his economic policies, which have brought unprecedented prosperity to both black and Hispanic communities. But there is a cultural element as well.