Simon Rosenberg, president of NDN, a centrist Democratic group, said he understood why Democrats are nervous about 2020 because the stakes are so high and there is so much uncertainty about who will be the party’s nominee. But he offers a reassuring message to the party’s worry warts: The fundamentals are working heavily in their favor.
“Trump is among the most unpopular presidents we have ever seen; Republicans keep losing elections badly,” Rosenberg said. “The underlying structure of this race is that Democrats should win, and win handily in 2020.”
His group’s research found that, during 84% of his first three years in office, Trump’s unfavorability rating has exceeded his favorability rating by more than 10 points. By contrast, the 11 presidents since 1952 combined were that unpopular just 2% of the time in their first three years.
Nonetheless, Democrats are anxious because they expect tough fights to reclaim three historically Democratic industrial states Trump won narrowly in 2016: Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Most polls show Trump behind in battleground states, but a new Wisconsin survey gave Trump some encouraging news.
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