So, is Trump flailing badly and going to lose big(ly), or does he have a real path to winning the Electoral College?

Yes.

These latest polls and election results are telling the same story we’ve been seeing and hearing for the last two-plus years. Trump is unpopular and polarizing, which makes it all but impossible for him to win the popular vote. But, he does have a chance to win thanks to the demographic make-up of key Midwestern battleground states…

Moreover, my colleague David Wasserman has crunched the numbers and finds a lot of slack left in the white, non-college lane. In 2016, 81 percent of white men and women with college degrees turned out to vote compared with just 56 percent of non-college white men and 60 percent of non-college white women.

Or, as Texiera and Halpin write, the biggest impact for the Democrats in the midwest “would come from a move of the very large white non-college group—probably led by white non-college women—back toward their Democratic support levels of 2012. That would result in easy Democratic victories in the Rust Belt three of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and would even make Iowa and Ohio competitive.”