Please understand that I’m not making a subjective argument about whether Warren’s M4A plan is a good thing. I’m talking solely about the politics of passage and pointing out that her plan triggers immediate, Armageddon-level opposition from a whole bunch of different groups, not all of whom are mustache-twirling villains.

And who are the constituent groups who will be willing to die on the M4A hill?

Voters without insurance
Super-progressives on Twitter
TBD???

Just as a matter of politics, this is unpassable. It’s dead on arrival. Especially because a compromise version—something close to the Biden or Buttigieg model—will be sitting right there, on the shelf. You are never—never—going to get the people in Congress to walk the plank on something this sweeping, with this much built-in opposition, when there’s an alternative available that gives you 90 percent of the benefits for 10 percent of the political cost.