Why Democrats face an uphill battle against Trump

Voters have strong feelings about the President and about the direction of the Democratic Party. But feelings don’t equal turnout. A recent experiment, for example, showed that Democratic voters who were exposed to news coverage about some of the left-leaning policy positions taken by Democratic candidates at the debate became slightly more enthusiastic about voting for the eventual nominee of their party.

But the survey also showed two big red flags. First, independents who read about the party’s leftward turn were 6% less likely to vote Democratic.

Second, the experiment also found that the results “did not indicate [Democratic voters] were more motivated to vote and campaign for the eventual nominee than those who hadn’t read about them.”

This is why campaigns and parties spend hundreds of millions of dollars on targeted digital ads, and on building a robust ground game. And while the President may be turning off non-white voters in Florida, Democrats aren’t going to win that state or any other swing state unless their voters actually show up to—you guessed it—vote.