2. Obama loyalists

Warren’s greatest strength is that she is genuinely her own person, something she demonstrated during the early years of the Obama administration when she fought furiously with his economic advisors to be tougher on the banks and give more attention to the ways that stabilizing the financial system was insufficient to restore economic health. It was a vital practical issue as much as an issue of justice, and she wasn’t daunted in the slightest by going to battle with her own party over it. Because of this history, she is uniquely positioned to cut the legs out from Trump’s argument that he is a necessary disruptor of the system, and to seize the mantle of change rather than restoration.

But of course, an argument for “deep structural change” implicitly criticizes the popular former president, whether for failing to achieve that change or for failing to try. That’s a potential problem for her as she seeks to consolidate support from moderate Democrats in general — and from black voters in particular. And Biden will do everything he can to make it as big a problem with as many voters (and party leaders) as he can.

Warren has been careful not to attack Biden for this very reason — indeed, she’s been notable for rarely attacking anybody in her party. But when the argument is brought to her, she’s going to have to figure out how to turn it to her advantage — by shifting the subject from the past to the future. The question isn’t whether Obama made the right choices in 2009 or 2010 or 2014 or whenever. What would he do now, knowing what he does now, about what worked and what didn’t, and what the consequences were?