This statement is extremely closely written. And NOAA leadership did find a single forecast tool that indicated a small part of southeastern Alabama faced a 5 to 10 percent chance of experiencing 40 mile per hour winds.
Yet this is beside the point, because Alabama never actually experienced those winds. In the course of this week, winds in Alaga, Alabama—a town in the state’s southeastern-most corner—never exceeded 9 miles per hour, according to the weather-almanac database Dark Sky.
And if NOAA is in a mood to nitpick: President Trump’s statements disagreed far more with “probabilities from the best forecast products available” than the Birmingham office’s did. At no point was Alabama “most likely [to] be hit (much) harder than anticipated.” And this is not even the most egregious example. “They actually gave that a 95 percent chance probability. It turned out that that was not what happened,” Trump said on Thursday. The National Weather Service never forecast that Dorian had a 95 percent chance of hitting Alabama.