3. The way Trump talked about race and identity in 2017-18 probably hurt Republicans in the midterms, but this is a contested idea.
Another reason to be skeptical that how Trump talked about identity issues helped him win the election in 2016 is that Trump pursued a similar strategy in 2017-18 and it flopped. The GOP, with Trump not on the ballot but still as the party leader, lost a net of 40 U.S. House seats and control of the chamber. Republicans also lost gubernatorial and Senate races in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, three states Trump had flipped to the GOP in 2016.
In fact, the Republicans lost in exactly the way you would expect if Trump’s racial strategy is not particularly smart — white voters with college degrees who don’t align with Trump on identity issues strongly rejected the GOP, particularly in the suburbs. Yes, Republicans gained a net of two seats in the Senate by winning in heavily GOP leaning states. But the story of 2018 was that Republicans failed to match their huge margins among white voters without degrees from 2016 — and white voters with degrees were more Democratic-leaning than they were in 2016.
So maybe Trump’s strategy on racial issues is mostly flawed?
Join the conversation as a VIP Member