The only serious potential security threat to Europe today is from Russia. Yet Turkey cannot be trusted to take NATO’s side in a conflict. Ankara’s foreign policy now diverges greatly from that of the Western states, and its relationship with Russia, including cooperation in Syria, would discourage it from challenging Moscow there or elsewhere. Indeed, just as Erdogan decided that he could not trust his nation’s NATO-centric officers after the attempted coup, NATO cannot trust Turkish staff who may be budding Russophiles.
The thought of dropping Ankara creates consternation among some members of the foreign policy establishment. An unnamed “senior State Department official” insisted that “Turkey has been and remains an important NATO ally, an important partner to the United States. Our relationship is not being defined by the single issue of the S-400.” However, defenestrating Ankara would only formalize the changing relationship. In practice, Turkey has already been “lost” to the alliance. Abandoning any illusions about the relationship might better enable the U.S. to negotiate a modus vivendi with Ankara in Syria and elsewhere.
Of course, Erdogan will not be president forever. Wall Street Journal columnist Walter Russell Mead argued that “Washington should remember that Turkey is bigger than one man and focus on the long term.” Yet the U.S. should also not feel the need to chase after dubious allies whose importance has faded. Especially since, even after Erdogan’s eventual hostility dissipates, disputed interests will remain and undermine any alliance ties.
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