What’s changed and what hasn’t:
State polls are more likely to weight their samples for education — but it won’t be all of them.
It’s still hard to predict who will actually vote, and it may be getting harder. “In pre-Trumpian times, one side would surge and the other side wouldn’t. Now both sides surge,” said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake.
State polls are still more likely to be underfunded than national polls. “I don’t see an infusion of high-quality state-level polls that weren’t there in 2016,” said Courtney Kennedy of the Pew Research Center, one of the members of the committee that wrote the postmortem.
Voters can still decide at the last minute — and what we don’t know yet is whether 2020 polls in the battleground states will run later than they did in 2016.