In other words, Iran has much more to gain by negotiating with the U.S. than continuing the confrontation. Iranian diplomats, who believe they came out of talks with the Obama administration with the longer end of the stick, think that if they enter any negotiating room they can easily beset their interlocutors. Stalemated talks will inevitably generate pressure on the Trump team by European allies and Democrats who will insist that the Pompeo parameters are unrealistic and must be abandoned. Many within the professional bureaucracy led by State Department diplomats, intelligence analysts and Pentagon generals are likely to echo these themes. The Iranians have seen these pressures and fears of another war in the Middle East drive both the Obama administration and the Bush administration to the negotiating table, and they hope the same factors will finally cause Trump and Pompeo to narrow their gaze to some modest changes in the JCPOA, rather than a total overhaul. But Iran’s leadership, which has insisted to its populace for two years that it will not enter talks with a truculent Trump, requires a narrative of success justifying its turnabout. The regime cannot enter negotiations as a supplicant battered by American sanctions.

I believe this is why Tehran in May opted for a more risky strategy of incrementally increasingly pressure on America while also whittling down its demands for resumption of nuclear talks. President Hassan Rouhani announced Iran would gradually reconsider its obligations under the JCPOA starting with retaining enriched uranium at home as opposed to sending it abroad. Then, the Trump administration accused Iran of attacking oil tankers around the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has denied the attacks, but Iran has often threatened Gulf shipping whenever it has faced sanctions and threats from America—a signal to the international community that the Islamic Republic is capable of obstructing oil commerce through one of the most strategically vital waterways. And then for good measure, Iran shot down an American drone. Tehran, I think, hoped that its incremental escalation would not lead to war, but generate a diplomatic process. It was a risky move, but one that may yet pay off.