Let’s end with a word about presidential leadership. I want to reiterate that Trump made the right decision not to strike Iran, but it is deeply troubling to hear that he did not truly ponder the costs of the strike until minutes before its execution. A White House official reportedly told CNN that the president had the casualty estimates “earlier in the day.” He could and should have made his decision when he saw the proposed plan.

Moreover, given the reportedly small size of the strike, the president’s very public indecision doesn’t even communicate to the Iranians that they dodged a bullet. As I noted above, they dodged a pinprick, and jihadists are generally unimpressed with pinpricks. He unnecessarily communicated confusion and weakness (the Iranians would chortle at his concern over casualties) when he could have demonstrated consistency and resolve.
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There is a cost to alternating between bluster and restraint, and that cost is obvious. Threats that once seemed frightening in 2017 seem increasingly empty in 2019, and we steadily lose the ability to deter. Trump is inverting Teddy Roosevelt’s maxim — “Speak softly and carry a big stick.” Bluster followed by inaction is far worse than the calm pursuit of serious strategy.