Political professionals are so focused on the micro-details of the 2020 elections that they miss the macro trends favoring President Trump as he kicks off his re-election campaign in Florida. They are looking at national and state polls when our “America First” president ought to be viewed in a global context.

The lobbyists, consultants and pundits inside the Beltway are obsessed with recent data that show Mr. Trump losing to several Democratic challengers. But surveys taken more than a year before Election Day are meaningless. More important, Mr. Trump benefits from incumbency and continued economic recovery, and he’s riding a wave of national populism that has yet to crest.

Only two of the nine presidents up for re-election since World War II have lost. In the past century the public has booted a party from the White House after a single term just once. And Jimmy Carter’s presidency was plagued by foreign policy setbacks and stagflation. Neither condition pertains today.