Trump needs to keep the 2020 "Trump Show" interesting

The Florida rally, with a size and enthusiasm calculated to make Joe Biden envious, implicitly raised a key 2020 question: At what point has Trump broken so many norms that he has become the new normal, the status quo he rails so effectively against, and therefore burns away the very source of his appeal?

The reason Trump so far has avoided this fate may be that he is defined by paradox, which in turn creates suspense: No one can confidently say how this story will end.

His reelection prospects put the Trump paradox under a bright light.

Seen in one light, it is easy to imagine Trump once again defying his haters and winning another term. As my colleague Scott Bland notes, when you run the numbers on some of the most influential models favored by economists and political scientists to predict incumbent performance, they typically point to his reelection.