Trump's "big three" battleground states will turn blue again in 2020

If the election were held next Tuesday, I believe President Trump would lose the three key battleground states. In 2016, he carried Michigan by only 10,704 out of 4.7 million votes, Wisconsin by 22,748 out of about 2.9 million cast and Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes out of about 6.1 million. In all of those states, Green Party nominee Jill Stein garnered more votes than Clinton lost by. And although there is always a chance that former Starbucks Chairman and CEO Howard Schultz will run as an independent, I believe he eventually will choose not to become a historical footnote as the man who reelected Donald Trump.

Additionally, there will be much stronger turnout in Detroit and Milwaukee than there was in 2016; the anger running through the Democratic base will ensure that. In all three states, Trump likely will get a much smaller percentage of the Hispanic and Muslim votes. All of these factors will combine to push Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin into the blue column once again.

As noted, if the Democrats lose some combination of New Hampshire, Minnesota and Nevada — states they barely carried in 2016 — they would have to win back at least one other state that President Trump carried. There are three states that could be viewed as reasonable targets for the Democrats to take back…