Forty-six percent of Democrats knew enough about de Blasio to form an opinion of him, but his net favorability rating is -1 when it “should” be around +20. Yes, that means more members of de Blasio’s own party dislike him than like him. That’s a huge handicap to de Blasio’s chances of winning the nomination.

After de Blasio, Reps. Tulsi Gabbard and Tim Ryan are the farthest below the trend line, indicating that they are unexpectedly unpopular. Only about a third of Democrats are familiar with them, and their net favorability ratings are lower than they “should” be by 9 points and 6 points, respectively, based on the statistical relationship between the two. The news is better for Sen. Kamala Harris and Washington Gov. Jay Inslee: They are beating expectations by the widest margins. Both have net favorability ratings that are 6 points higher than the share of Democrats with an opinion of them would predict.