If Biden can generate momentum in the early-voting states and remain popular in Florida — which, with 10 major media markets, can be wildly expensive to advertise in — rival campaigns will have to make some hard decisions about the value of competing hard here.
Pollster Fernand Amandi, who surveyed the Florida primary in March, said that as long as Biden wins at least two of the first early states and holds his own in the other preceding states, Florida is poised to give him an outsized advantage.
“In that scenario Florida becomes the state where Biden clinches the nomination or where the anti-Biden candidate can really make a statement,” said Amandi, who worked for Hillary Clinton’s 2008 primary campaign in Florida and President Obama’s general election campaigns in 2008 and 2012. “If Biden can win Florida, he becomes the presumptive nominee. Not only is Joe Biden the frontrunner in Florida. This is his to lose. Could he still lose it? Yes. But this will be a nomination he loses, not one that’s taken away from him.”