Why a contested Democratic convention is a real possibility in 2020

Every four years, political pundits draw up fantasy scenarios about how there could be a contested convention. No doubt, much of this is fueled by the fact that most working journalists are not old enough to have experienced a real convention fight, and if 15,000 members of the media are going to travel to a city in the middle of the summer, they’d like to dream of covering something other than a four-day infomercial. But there are several reasons to believe that this time could be different, and that Democrats are looking at the real possibility of a contested convention in 2020.

In 2020, Democrats are dealing with several factors, including the size and composition of their field, the delegate allocation rules, and the voting procedures for choosing a nominee, that all increase the likelihood of a contested convention.

The sheer size of the Democratic field is one issue. It’s simple math. The more candidates, the greater the chance that voters are divided, and the harder it is for one single candidate to emerge with a majority of delegates. Currently, there are 19 candidates, not including Joe Biden.