While Trump reelection is far from assured, Goldman’s economists believe the president is bolstered by “the advantage of first-term incumbency and the relatively strong economic performance,” in what is sure to be a “close call” election.
Trump’s approval ratings remain mired below 50%, as new crises appear to engulf his administration on a near daily basis. Meanwhile, early reads on the November 2020 ballot suggest the incumbent faces an uphill climb in his reelection bid.
Yet with more than 20 Democrats vying to replace him, voter turnout uncertain and the likely emergence of an independent candidate suggest that “President Trump is more likely to win a second term than the eventual Democratic candidate is to defeat him,” Goldman wrote.
“While we believe the majority of market participants expect President Trump to win a second term, we note that prediction markets point in the opposite direction and imply that the Democratic candidate has a 56% probability of winning and the Republican candidate has a 44% chance,” the bank said.