We need to be cautious in interpreting early polling data. We’ve got about 10 months to go until the Iowa caucuses. A lot of things can change.

Caution doesn’t mean dismissal, however. As the New York Times’ Nate Cohn has noted, “Biden would be a strong contender for 2020 if the past were a reliable guide.” Now Cohn rightly offers the disclaimer that some recent elections have shown that being ahead in the polls at this point is no guarantee of victory. Still, it’s worth pointing out that the polls had Donald Trump winning the nomination long before analysts (such as yours truly) did.

Biden’s current 30% nationally is not to be taken lightly. Examine a 2011 analysis of early primary polls from years past by FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver. When a candidate with high name recognition averages 30% in the polls in the first half of the year before the primary, said candidate has a 2 in 5 chance of winning the nomination. Biden has averaged about 30% in every month so far this year, despite more candidates entering the race.

A 2 in 5 shot is far from a sure thing. In fact, it jibes with what I said up top: Biden probably won’t win the nomination.

That said, in a field that will likely end up north of 20 candidates, a candidate who has a 2 in 5 chance (by the polling) should be considered a front-runner.