The real challenges to Netanyahu’s next administration will come not from Washington, DC, but from Tehran and from within. For the last decade, Netanyahu has avoided all-out war in Syria with Iran and its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah. He has propped up the ailing Mahmoud Abbas and the weak Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and, with Egyptian help, kept Hamas bottled up in Gaza. It is not clear how much longer this balance can hold.
The end of the Syrian civil war will, sooner or later, bring Iranian forces to the foot of the Golan. The stand-off with Hamas in Gaza contains no prospect beyond another short and costly war. And a combination of factors — the annexationist mood of Netanyahu’s coalition, the enduring Israeli Jewish distrust of the PLO after the Second Intifada, the corruption of the Palestinian Authority, the popularity of Hamas — all threaten the relatively peaceful status quo in the West Bank.
Netanyahu is risk-averse, but committed to forestalling a Palestinian state in the West Bank. There is no guarantee that the next US president will be a Republican, and after the Obama years, Netanyahu knows he can expect little from an incoming Democratic president. The next two years are the window of opportunity for shaping his legacy.
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