If the 2020 election were today, Trump would lose

Which puts a pretty fine point on the challenge facing Trump and his 2020 campaign team between now and November 3. But to put an even FINER point on it — here are just a sampling of the states where Trump’s approval rating is currently below 49%: Texas (41%), Pennsylvania (42%), Michigan (42%) and Florida (43%). Those four states have 103 electoral votes between them. And Trump won ALL of them in 2016.

The fundamental problem that the Gallup data points to is that Trump’s approval rating is strongest in small-population states. Of the 10 states where Gallup found Trump’s approval was the highest in 2018, the one with the most electoral votes is Tennessee, with 11. Those 10 states have a combined 57 electoral votes. (The 10 states where Trump is the least popular in the Gallup numbers have a total of 173 electoral votes.)