Three major scenarios for Venezuela

A U.S. or multinational military intervention topples Maduro.

Much like happened in Panama in the late 1980s, a U.S. court indicts Maduro and his cronies on drug trafficking charges, prompting escalating tensions that end with a U.S. military invasion. Or, similar to what happened on the Caribbean island of Grenada in the early 1980s, the United States invades Venezuela citing a Russian and Cuban takeover.

But while Panama’s military had 21,000 troops, Grenada about 2,000 troops — with no tanks or heavy weapons — Venezuela’s armed forces have 351,000 troops, according to the International Institute of Strategic Studies, a British think-tank.

And Venezuela is a much bigger country than Panama or tiny Grenada. While an estimated 20,000 U.S. troops participated in the Panama invasion — most of whom were already in U.S. bases there — and 7,000 took part in the Grenada invasion, some U.S. analysts have estimated that invading Venezuela would take more than 100,000 U.S. troops.