The 2019 State of the Union doubled down on trade wars and border walls, on ally-baiting and America-preening. Unfortunately for Trump, Option 2 only makes sense when you command a potential majority coalition, as Reagan and Obama did. When you don’t, as Trump does not, the highly divisive politics that rally your base simultaneously rally your opponents’ bigger base.
By talking so fiercely about abortion, Trump has hugely raised the stakes for his judicial nominations, including the pending nomination of Neomi Rao for the D.C. Circuit. Trump’s accusatory language about border walls seems intended to make impossible any kind of agreement on border security.
Meanwhile, Trump’s most indispensable supporters—the Republican senators—looked unconvinced and displeased through the speech’s more pitchfork-waving passages. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has little interest fighting Pharma or launching another round of tariffs against China and Mexico.
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