If Trump wants another shutdown, Republicans won’t stop him

Republicans in Congress can take two steps to avert a shutdown. One is to reach a deal on border issues with their Democratic counterparts before government funding runs out, and sell the president on it. The other is to communicate to Trump that if he tries to use another shutdown to get his way, enough of them will vote with the Democrats to keep the government open that any veto would be overridden.

They’re not going to take that second step, no matter how many pundits tell them to do it, because they’re not willing to deliver on the threat. They don’t want another shutdown, but they want a bitter party split even less. And that’s what breaking with Trump on a shutdown would be: a declaration that congressional Republicans will work with congressional Democrats to sideline Trump. The president would — understandably! — respond by lashing out at Republican traitors. Republicans have no intention of entering the 2020 election cycle that way.

So while Republicans in Congress and the Trump administration do not want another shutdown, and have every reason to expect another shutdown would end no better for them than the last one did, they have effectively resigned themselves to the fact that whether there will be one and what role they will play in it depends on the whims of the president. This is not the place they want to be, but at least it is a familiar one.