We need party reform, not a third party

If Schultz does not have history on his side, the math of 2020 does not look too much better, either. In the 2016 election, some 69 percent of all voters identified with one party or another. Moreover, one party or another was very close to a majority in many crucial states — California (55 electoral votes), New York (29 electoral votes), and Illinois (20 electoral votes) all sport Democratic near-majorities. Republicans tend not to have such a lock on any large states, but smaller states in the Deep South and the Great Plains are solidly locked into the GOP. That means Schultz would have to win over partisans of one side or the other — in truth, he would probably have to do a bit of both — if he hopes to win an Electoral College majority.

And what if he splits the Electoral College vote, such that no candidate has a majority? In that case, the election would go to the House of Representatives, in which each state caucus gets a single vote. Again, this is not propitious for Schultz. After all, the two parties dominate Congress even more than they do the electorate — how could he persuade Democratic or Republican politicians to vote for him? Each state caucus might be obliged to vote for the candidate who won the most votes in its state — but that simply re-creates the problem he faces in the first place: There are too many strongly partisan states.