Five scenarios for how Mueller's investigation could end

Scenario 3: Trump isn’t accused of wrongdoing, but someone close to him is

What happens if someone close to Trump — for example, Donald Trump Jr., who has reportedly said that he expects to be indicted by Mueller — is charged in the Russia probe, but Trump himself isn’t accused of wrongdoing? That would be relatively good news for Trump; Katy Harriger, who is a political science professor at Wake Forest University and studies special prosecutor investigations, said he might be able to weather the scandal — much as Ronald Reagan did during the Iran-Contra investigation, which ended up implicating Reagan’s defense secretary. But he wouldn’t be out of the woods for a few reasons.

First, Trump might be tempted to issue a pardon. It wouldn’t be unprecedented for a president to pardon someone who got into legal trouble because of a special counsel investigation, as I wrote last year, but the timing matters a lot. If a pardon interferes with an ongoing investigation, it could open Trump up to obstruction of justice charges.

Another possible consequence of the indictment of a close business associate of Trump’s is that it could add fuel to the political fire around the president. The charges could give Democrats in Congress more justification for pursuing their own investigations, possibly into Trump’s family businesses. Harriger noted that unlike Reagan, Trump is only in his first term, so the Democrats’ probes could end up eroding his popularity and potentially hurt his chances in 2020.